So today, I invite those of you who haven’t already, to join my fierce cult of hardcore collapse realism, because at some point you have to respect yourself and stop showing compassion for a civilisation that never had compassion for itself. Capitalism, ecocide, autocracy and cannibalism are self-destructive chemical reactions that only stop when there is nothing left to destroy.

https://georgetsakraklides.substack.com/p/detoxing-from-the-hope-porn-why-collapse

It seems like many people out there are still sniffing techno-hopium by the tank-load. 

As much as I’d love for them to be right, it’s just too easy to show why they’re wrong. Or at least how they’re overrelying on unreasonable assumptions. 

Today, let’s talk about carbon capture and storage. CCS. The “get out of jail free” card for the fossil fuel industry. The darling of politicians who want to look like they’re doing something about the climate crisis, without actually changing a thing.

But here’s the truth: CCS is a mirage. It makes great promises, but delivers little.

https://www.collapse2050.com/the-carbon-capture-mirage-why-were-betting-on-a-fantasy/

Since our future fossil fuel supply looks increasingly limited, and since every low-carbon energy source continues to depend on cheap coal, oil and gas, there will come a day when electricity generation will also peak, then decline. Such shortfalls in production are usually managed with price increases, forcing customers to use less or simply go bankrupt. (Oh, the beauty of capitalism and free markets!) There is already a bidding competition between data centers, large corporations and everyone else. As a result small businesses and many households are already at a growing risk of being priced out of the electricity market. For many electric bills are already so high that they will either have to close shop soon or stop paying their dues — so that new data centers can churn out even more AI-generated cat videos.

https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-road?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1498475&post_id=173518935&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=5ksy3v&triedRedirect=true

Abstract. Global temperature in 2025 declined 0.1°C from its El Nino-spurred maximum in 2024, making 2025 the second warmest year. The 2023-2025 mean is +1.5°C relative to 1880-1920. The 12-month running-mean temperature should decline for the next few months, reaching a minimum about +1.4°C. Later in 2026, we expect the 12-month running-mean temperature to begin to rise, as dynamical models show development of an El Nino. We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027, which will provide further confirmation of the recent global warming acceleration.

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Global temperature of +1.47°C in 2025 relative to 1880-1920 is the 2^nd highest in the period of instrumental data, about 0.1°C cooler than the 2024 record high (Fig. 1) in the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis.[1] (We assume the remainder of this month will be about 0.1°C cooler than the same period in 2024; this uncertainty in the exact December temperature has imperceptible effect on the 2025 temperature in Fig. 1). The 3-year (2023-2025) temperature is +1.5°C relative to 1880-1920. We will provide details on the geographical and temporal temperature change in a communication in early 2026.

Two years ago (29 March 2024) we projected[2] that global warming in the then-ongoing El Nino would rise much more than in prior El Ninos, raising global temperature to at least +1.6°C, and that temperature after the El Nino would fall only to +1.4°C (see Fig. 2). (Expectation of unusual warming was based on realization that a long-term global cooling effect of aerosols had recently shifted to warming, as we will discuss further in an upcoming post.) Consistent with this prior projection, we expect a minimum 12-month running-mean temperature of about +1.4°C to be reached in the first half of 2026, after which global temperature should begin a rise that will continue into 2027, reaching a new record high, as discussed below.

El Nino status. The tropical Pacific Ocean is presently in its cool La Nina phase, but there is evidence in numerous models that it will shift into the El Nino phase in 2026. Fig. 3 is the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (relative to the base period 1991-2020) in the Nino3.4 region in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This Nino3.4 index characterizes the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status, which is the largest natural source of global interannual temperature variability. Warm or cold anomalies need to exceed 0.5°C for several consecutive months to qualify as El Nino or La Nina. Beware that rapid global warming of the past half century is perturbing the quantitative significance of Nino3.4.[3] The strongest El Nino relative to its surroundings was the 1997-98 El Nino; the 2015-16 and 2023 El Nino strengths are exaggerated by the effect of global warming on the Nino3.4 index, which also diminishes apparent strength of recent La Ninas.

NOAA’s ENSO projections are very conservative, the 15 December ENSO Alert concluding “La Nina is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance).” This is more a statement of current conditions, rather than a prediction. Numerous models and evidence point toward an El Nino beginning in the second half of 2026. For example, Fig. 4 is an ensemble of projections of the current NOAA NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) model.[4] We can use the well-founded expectation of this upcoming El Nino for a further test of global warming acceleration.

References

[1] Temperature is from Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis described by Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M et al. Global surface temperature change, Rev Geophys 48, RG4004, 2010; Lenssen NJL, Schmidt G, Hendrickson M et al. A NASA GISTEMPv4 Observational Uncertainty Ensemble, J Geophys Res Atmos 129, e2023JD040179, 2024

[2] Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P. Global warming acceleration: hope versus hopium, 29 March 2024

[3] Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R. Global warming acceleration: El Nino measuring stick looks good, 14 December 2023

[4] NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction forecasts are available and updated weekly. A new ensemble of climate model runs is made each week. Chart 24 in their Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction shows the average of other global atmosphere-ocean models as “DYN AVG.”

[5] Hansen JE, Sato M, Simons L et al., “Global warming in the pipeline,” Oxford Open Clim. Chan. 3 (1), 2023

[6] Hansen JE, Kharecha P, Sato M et al. Global warming has accelerated: are the United Nations and the public well-informed? Environ.: Sci. Pol. Sustain. Devel. 67(1), 6–44, 2025

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) currently estimates temperature increases of 3.0°C for doubled CO2. Recent findings refute this fundamental IPCC projection, demonstrating that the risk of a much hotter future is significantly greater than conventional models estimate. Furthermore, the decadal rate of CO2 increase is increasing in an exponential and not linear manner.

Based on historical records (ice; ocean and lake sediment; bore holes into the earth’s crust; and cave deposits), when CO2 levels double, the Earth’s temperature rises an average of 4.8°C (ranging from 3.6°C to 6°C). Oxford Open Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2023: Global warming in the pipeline. James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, et al. https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

“Climate sensitivity is substantially higher than IPCC’s best estimate (3°C for doubled CO2), a conclusion we reach with greater than 99 percent confidence.”) “Seeing the Forest for the Trees,” James E. Hansen and Pushker Kharecha, August 6, 2025. Dr. Hansen points out that the IPCC’s best estimate of 3.0°C is inconsistent with multiple lines of scientific evidence. The “greater than 99 percent confidence” is based on an analysis of multiple and combined data sets and concludes that the probability of climate sensitivity being as low as 3.0°C or less is extremely small.” 

The CO2 level in 1750 was 280 parts per million (ppm). In May 2025, the CO2 level at Mauna Loa Observatory reached a high point of 428 ppm. The 2023 to 2024 increase of atmospheric CO2 was 3.54 ppm.  Assuming future annual CO2 ppm increases do not exceed the 2023-2024 increase, the Pre-Industrial level of 280 ppm will double in 37.7 years (2062), baking in temperature increases of approximately 4.8C (ranging from 3.6°C to 6°C).  

To learn more about this important finding, access Roger Hallam’s January 2026 Report here: ______________________What this means to you: A fundamental way to approach the question of “how fast is our planet overheating” is to project, as best possible, temperature increases based on the increase of current CO2 levels above pre-industrial levels of CO2. Because conventional climate models continue to use discredited sensitivity information, their projections significantly underestimate the speed of collapse. As a result of this misinformation, we are losing valuable time to address and develop effective responses to the collapse that is coming.